Today, we see clearly the Asian countries that had taken the information, processed it into working knowledge, and applied it to their own economies. Thailand has suffered temporary political turbulence, but the whole country--whoever the man on top and whatever his title--has already internalized the capitalist lifestyle and, from all indications, will no longer depart from it. Vietnam is Asean heir apparent, able to blend Western dynamism and Asian grandeur. Cambodia tags along, a little more slowly perhaps, but certain to get there just the same. All of them, I'm afraid to say, ahead of the Philippines.
The greatest wonder of them all? China, without a doubt. Each Chinese city is a total market, so infinitely exciting to Western capital and industry, to global tourists and consumers. Yes, including us Asians. Only 28 years since Chinese leader Deng Xiao-ping directed his country toward the path to economic reform and 35 years since the late US President Richard Nixon shook hands in Beijing with Mao Zedong, China has cemented its place as the world's emerging trade giant. Now fully awake to its potential, it can--if it so wishes--step over everybody else.
The Philippines? We missed our chance in the late '50s and '60s. Had we worked hard at it, we could at least have ensured a dignified life for all Filipinos. How sad that not one of our leaders ever successfully pursued--or wanted to pursue--a total development view.
____________________
Editorial Page column, The Evening Paper
Issue of 18 April 1995
The rocket-propelled growth of the region in the decades of the '70s and '80s reduced the number of East Asia's chronically poor population from 400 million to 180 million, even as 2/3 parallel population growth was also registered. By IMF estimates, of the $7.5 trillion (in 1990 dollars) by which gross world product in 2000 should exceed that of 1990, half would come from East Asia, according to The Economist (1993 figures).
The World Bank said it differently but came to much the same conclusion: Between now and 2000, Asia will contribute half of the growth in world trade, even as it accounts for 3.5 billion of the world's total population of 6.2 billion.
More than 1 billion Asians--almost the entire combined population of North America, South America, and the European Union today--will be living in households with consumer-spending power, while more than 400 million will have disposable incomes at least equal to 1993's rich-world average.
Said The Economist: It creates "some of the biggest business and financial opportunities in history."
Some other time, we can trace the history of Asia's revolutionary growth and examine each move in this brilliant two-decade economic turnaround. That's another story for another day.
For now, let us concentrate on Asia today. Skeptics may well say The Economist's figures are two years old. Much could have happened since then to turn Asia's clock sadly back.
But the Asian Development Bank does not think so. In its annual "Outlook" report, released only this month, the bank said the Asia-Pacific region will enjoy high economic growth in 1995-96.
The newly industrialized territories--Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan--will register at least 6.7 percent annual growth in 1995 and 1996. The developing nations of Asia will post 7.6 and 7.4 percent gross domestic product growth in 1995 and 1996, respectively.
The Bank's reasons for optimism: the continuing flow of foreign capital to developing Asian nations, fueling continued economic growth, and the sound macroeconomic policies that will prevent countries in the region aspiring for NIChood from going the way of Mexico.
Of course, the Bank also issues the usual caveat, especially to Asia's countries-in-a rush: these economies must upgrade their manufacturing bases (italics ours) because, whether these countries like it or not, lower-wage suppliers are ready to challenge them with the usual come-ons (price, quality, delivery) in the export markets they consider theirs.
You may question the source of that optimism. The ADB, a bank that services the region, has to be optimistic about Asia: Is it not its raison d'etre?
Those who seek a more global authority may want to take it from the World Trade Organization (WTO). In its report on world trade, also released earlier this month, WTO took special note of the growth of Asian exports in both volume and value terms in 1994. In value, Asian exports totaled $1.10 trillion, or a rise of 15.2 percent over 1993. WTO also included eight Asian countries among the world's leading trading nations, covering both exports and imports. Among these leading Asian traders: Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand.
Is it only an accident that these six countries are also NICs or aspiring NICs? Or is there merit in my firm belief, which I expressed at a farewell given by colleagues in the international trade publishing group that I was then leaving for The Evening Paper with the prospect of writing on trade and helping local exporters, that global trade remains the engine for national economic growth--if only we can pursue it with true discipline down the production line?
But I am straying away from my original thesis today: that Asia is now too big and too tempting a market for Filipino exporters, who may still be passionately running after America and Europe, to ignore. And unless our local exporters start looking at Asian markets, they may find themselves a little too late again in reaping the fruits of the revolution--surely, the Filipinos' sad story.
Already, manufacturers in neighboring countries are tapping the billion-plus consumers within Asia itself, including us. Just go around our supermarkets, department stores, and duty-free shops. They are all awash with electronics goods or breakfast cereals from Malaysia, glassware from Turkey, soft towels from Taiwan, silk from South Korea, canned fruits from Indonesia and Singapore, and everything else from China.
These supplier countries are all looking inward now, within their own region. As an exporter from China once told me, "Too much trouble keeping up with Americans' funny quotas."
China itself is both a supply and consumer market: 16 million affluent consumers with per-capita incomes of $1,000-$4,000 (1993 figures). By 2000, the number of China's consumers with spending capacity should rise to 150 million.
In the Shanghai-Guangzhou area, consumers are willing to pay for anything imported and with a foreign brand name--plus, of course, the quality they hope goes with the products. In Shanghai, new concrete-and-glass, Western-style department stores and shopping complexes are rising, seemingly overnight.
The town of Zhuhai (the special economic zone bordering Macau), for example, with its population of 800,000, is base to more than 2,600 foreign-invested projects, some of them producing high-tech goods. The new wealth, especially in the hands of Zhuhai's yuppies, is translating into eagerness for trendy imports.
And for those who are afraid of dealing with the humongous China market, there's South Korea and Taiwan, once known only as suppliers to consumers in the developed world. Both are now sizable consumer markets for imported goods. Taiwan is one of the world's 25 richest countries.
As for South Korea, its department stores have begun to target reasonably priced, midrange imports. With the country's distribution markets liberalized in 1993, some South Korean retailers have branched out from the cities to the provinces, attracting shoppers with lower-priced imports from the country's developing neighbors.
Why shouldn't some of those goods come from the Philippines?
-- NBT
